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In meat, milk, and eggs, the UK produces a roughly equivalent volume to what it consumes. In 2020 it produced 61kg of meat, 227 litres of milk and 172 eggs per person per year. By value the UK is a net importer of dairy and beef, reflecting consumer preferences for eating higher value products and exporting lower value products. Context and Rationale Since 1 January 2022, other regulated goods imported from the EU (except the Republic of Ireland) have also needed to go through some plant health controls. Regulated and notifiable plants and plant products Recent Met Office research used UKCP18 simulations to assess the future impact of drought in the UK, focusing on the period 2041 to 2070. Key findings include: Climate change presents a separate risk. The Climate Change Committee’s Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk projects warming of 0.2-0.4°C per decade to 2100 and beyond in the shallow shelf seas around the UK, particularly in the English Channel and southern North Sea. Warming seas, ocean acidification, and changes in salinity impact the entire marine biosphere and food chain on which commercial fishing depends. Fish farms face separate climate-related risks. Overreliance on one geographical area and dependence on particular supply sources makes food supply more vulnerable, while diversity of sources makes it more resilient. UK consumer preferences and diets include a range of products that cannot be grown in the UK or cannot be grown year-round. Therefore, the UK does not produce everything it eats or eat everything it produces.
Potential impacts: Arable farming in East Anglia is likely to be adversely affected by soil erosion, due to the entire region being considered at relatively high risk of erosion by 2060 to 2080. The results shown in the figure below only consider meteorological factors, and further work is needed to incorporate land cover and land management practices for a comprehensive assessment of erosion risk. How might seasonal and spatial rainfall patterns change in the future? If you’re exporting fruit and vegetables to Northern Ireland, read DAERA’s guidance on exporting plants and plant products. Exporting green bananas from the UK to the EU and non-EU countriesHMI and SASA will inspect all green banana imports from the EU routinely, in the same way as non-EU imports
In 2023, the PEACH system will be changing to a new IT system called the import of products, animals, food and feed system ( IPAFFS). Egg production has also been consistent, meeting between 89% and 98% of domestic demand and increasing substantially over the last decade, despite a significant move to free range methods, which now make up about half of production. It is likely that a slight dip in 2020 was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic reducing demand from hospitality and canteens. Although production has increased slightly, laying fowl numbers have decreased from 53 million in 1984 to 40 million in 2020, with the main reduction taking place in the 1980s and 1990s. Trends Since 2007, there have been large-scale interventions aimed at reducing food waste across supply chains and households in the UK. WRAP estimates that this may have contributed to a reduction in post farmgate total food waste between 2007 and 2018 of around 15% (1.7Mt). Total post farmgate food waste in the UK was 476,000 tonnes lower in 2018 compared to 2015 which equates to a 4.8% reduction (10Mt down to 9.5Mt). This can be partly attributed to consumer campaigns like WRAP’s ‘Love Food Hate Waste’ and the UK Food Waste Reduction Roadmap (aimed at businesses), along with better labelling and storage guidance, and also more widespread food waste collections from councils. [footnote 8] Food waste in manufacturing reduced by around 395,000 tonnes between 2011 and 2018 (an approximate 20% reduction, from around 1.9Mt), whilst levels of food waste reported by retailers were around 290,000 tonnes in 2009 compared to 259,000 tonnes in 2020. Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme 2018 to 2021, Developed from Joanna Jones, Edward Pope, Debbie Hemming, Freya Garry, James Bacon and Jemma Davie, ‘Future climate risk to UK agriculture from compound events’, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096321000115. ↩All fruit and vegetables imported to or exported from the UK must meet the relevant quality and labelling rules. Importing fruit and vegetables from the EU to Great Britain Demand for soft fruit has increased, with the domestic strawberry supply to use ratio similar to 1990 despite production being two to three times greater. Raspberry demand also grew slightly despite a reduction in domestic production, bringing the supply ratio down sharply from 100% to 40%. Supply ratios for apples, pears and plums is more consistent, and reflects trends in production year on year. Trends Average waste of four key products was generally around 20% between 2018 and 2021. This fell sharply at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, with improved food management behaviours leading to a significant reduction in self-reported household food waste in 2020. These positive changes, however, have started to decline with people returning to a pre-pandemic lifestyle, and food waste levels have increased again in 2021 to pre-pandemic levels. Context and rationale All goods that have to meet the Specific Marketing Standards ( SMS) need a certificate of conformity before they can enter Great Britain. Over the last 30 years land use has been fairly stable for most crops, allowing for fluctuations in prices and weather conditions. However, Defra-commissioned research suggests climate change impacts under a medium emissions scenario could reduce the proportion of ’best and most versatile’ arable farmland ( ALC 1, 2, and 3a) from 38.1% of agricultural land on a 1961 to 1990 baseline to 11.4% by 2050, with consequences for food production and meeting Net Zero. Under a high emissions scenario it could reduce to 9.2% of agricultural land; however there is quite high uncertainty about projections of this kind. [footnote 1] Meeting Net Zero, climate change mitigation, and biodiversity goals will increasingly add to existing, competing pressures on land use. Indicator 2.1.3 UK food imports and exports Headline
The UK imports roughly 50% of its ammonium nitrate, with 75% of imports for fertiliser use coming from the EU (primarily from Lithuania, Poland, and the Netherlands) and the remaining 25% from Georgia and Russia. If the only UK manufacturer were to close, demand for imports would increase. Dependency on other suppliers like Russia or China is only likely to occur if EU suppliers could not increase their supply to the UK. There are also alternative nitrogen-based fertilisers that could potentially be used. More than 90% of the UK’s total Calcium Ammonium Nitrate and Urea Ammonium Nitrate supply is imported from the EU, while only about 40% of Urea arrives from the EU. Urea imports from outside the EU are currently sourced from Algeria, Russia, and Egypt, with supplies also coming from Belarus and Bahrain. Importing ammonium nitrate requires specialist port facilities due to its explosive nature, so an issue at a major port could be challenging (see further discussion of port substitutability in Theme 3). You’ll need an inspection certificate to import green bananas to Great Britain. To import green bananas to Great Britain, you must: HMI inspects imports in England and Wales. SASA inspects imports in Scotland. You must pre-notify HMI on PEACH of your intention to import fruit and vegetables subject to SMS, even if:Agritourism is a fantastic way for farmers to diversify their income and to make some extra cash. With increasing issues such as droughts or increased competition, farmers are often susceptible to financial loss should they have a bad season. However, agritourism can be a great way to compensate for this! The disadvantages of agritourism You’ll need a GB-issued certificate of conformity unless your SMS consignment meets both of the following criteria: The relationship of supply to the time of year is complex and depends on the product. The UK has diverse supply lines to meet demand throughout the year. Context and rationale
Guidance updated to show change in rules from 1 January 2022 for imports from the Republic of Ireland to Great Britain. You’ll need to submit a PEACH application requesting a certificate of conformity for SMS goods, if both of the following conditions apply: Information added on who should use the IPAFFs IT import system and who should use PEACH IT import system from 1 January added to section ‘Register and pre-notify your goods on the relevant import IT system’. WRAP, ‘UK Food System GHG Emissions’, https://wrap.org.uk/resources/report/uk-food-system-ghg-emissions. ↩ Domestic production is also stable, with variations in yield and consumer demand balanced by imports and exports. Both agricultural production and manufacturing have become increasingly efficient and are geared towards meeting consumer demand, although food waste is still high.Warmer temperatures can also encourage fungal diseases such as potato blight (in combination with higher relative humidity), and other pests and pathogens, including the peach-potato aphid ( Myzus persicae) which is a risk to over 400 plant species, including potatoes and sugar beet. If you do not give enough pre-notification notice, your consignment may be held until the requirement is met. It could also result in your consignment being destroyed. You do not need a certificate of conformity for goods covered by General Marketing Standards ( GMS) to get customs clearance in Great Britain. If an importing EU member state requests a certificate of conformity for GMS goods, you can apply for this in Great Britain. To import regulated plants and plant products, you must get a phytosanitary certificate for each consignment from the plant health authority in the country where your supplier is.
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